Visakhapatnam: P Sunitha, a senior professor in the Department of Oceanography and Meteorology at Andhra University in Visakhapatnam, stated that El Niño has already reached an intense phase, causing the Earth to become hotter than ever before.
She opined that this could be a reason why the severe depression that recently formed in the Bay of Bengal did not intensify into a cyclone, although research regarding this matter is currently underway.
Sunitha said the severity of El Niño will persist until January 2027 and normal conditions are expected to return by April or May.
"Rising subsurface ocean temperatures appear to be one of the major factors contributing to the severe impact of El Niño. High temperatures have been observed in the Pacific Ocean at depths ranging from 50 to 300 meters. Temperatures there have risen by 2 to 4 degrees. While this 'Super El Niño' is likely to lead to severe rainfall deficits, it is too early to predict what other atmospheric changes might occur. We are monitoring the situation closely," she said.
According to her, dry winds are influencing the situation, given that the Southwest Monsoon accounts for 70% of the country's rainfall.
"The warming of the Pacific Ocean is causing clouds to shift eastward, leading to the formation of dry winds and a reduction in cloud cover over India and Indonesia. Consequently, prolonged dry spells have occurred. While the country typically receives an average of 868 mm of rainfall between June and September, it received only 759 mm," she said.
While the overall deficit stands at 13%, it is 24% in South India. The impact of El Niño diminishes if the warming of the western Indian Ocean (Positive Indian Ocean Dipole - IOD) sets in.
"The IOD will intensify and subsequently subside by December of this year. During the Northeast Monsoon season, the combination of a positive IOD and El Niño increases the likelihood of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal persisting for a longer duration," she said.
Sunitha said the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean is normally 28 degrees. Any further rise will change the indices. An index value of 2.7 indicates a Pacific Ocean temperature of 30.7 degrees.
Meanwhile, El Niño caused disasters in 1997, 2002, 2009, and 2015. The current intensity exceeds that of those previous events. The intensity of the current El Niño is projected to reach 2.9 (±0.4) by the end of October.
A Kelvin wave (a warm current) moves from the Pacific Ocean towards the Indian Ocean. With its arrival, humidity levels and wind directions shift. When a positive IOD and El Niño coincide, unexpected changes in weather patterns occur. Meteorological researchers are prepared to monitor these conditions.